As election results rolled in on Tuesday, Democrats lost key race after key race after key race. They lost the ones they saw coming, the ones they hoped wouldn't. They lost the ones they thought were safe. They lost almost everything. There were a couple of bright spots — New Hampshire, Michigan. But the midterms put President Barack Obama's party under water. ("A tidal wave," as one Democrat put it. "A tsunami," said another.)
What's next for the beleaguered Dems? The higher-stakes set of national elections in 2016.
And specifically: Hillary Clinton.
People close to the former first lady, senator, and secretary of state say she still hasn't made the "decision." But for Clinton's allies, advisers, friends, and former staff, the question is no longer whether she'll run for president a second time. It's when, how, with whom, and with what message.
If Clinton does go through with another White House bid, the slightest shade of difference in the way she answers these questions will influence the shape and success of her next presidential campaign.
There are about 60 days until 2015. And Clinton will be making a number of these decisions between now and then, moving into early next year.
Here are some things to watch:
1. What happens to the Clinton shadow groups?
There are three groups that have promoted Clinton, defended Clinton, and encouraged people to get excited about Clinton: That's Ready for Hillary, the self-described grassroots super PAC; Correct the Record, a project focused on shielding Clinton from partisan attacks and making a case for her in the press; and Priorities USA, the super PAC poised to start raising large amounts of money.
The first of these groups, Ready for Hillary, started up at the beginning of last year. At the time, Clinton was just stepping down at the State Department. She kept a low profile, gave paid speeches, accepted some awards. This summer, Clinton was back in the press, promoting her new memoir. Even then, Clinton felt one step removed from politics. Ready for Hillary filled that void. The group harnessed real enthusiasm for the idea of her candidacy. Fans had a venue. And officials with the group gathered lawmakers' endorsements that helped freeze the Democratic field.
Clinton has since reemerged on the political scene. She campaigned aggressively for Democrats in competitive races, holding a total of 45 rallies and fundraisers in 20 states since September, according to her staff.
People are no longer ready and waiting for Hillary. She's here.
So what happens to Ready for Hillary? It shuts down. The plan, according to sources familiar with it, is to close shop as soon as Clinton sets up her own campaign. The super PAC has events planned through December so far.
Meanwhile: Priorities USA will gear up fundraising after a period of inactivity during the midterms. Correct the Record will be the one to watch as Clinton potentially adds to her staff, including a possible communications director, ahead of a campaign.
2. Who will be the person (or people) at the helm?
It's a question that would determine major staffing choices. It's a question that could determine timing of a launch… It's probably the biggest question out there.
And it's twofold: Who will be in charge? And will anyone be in charge?
Six years ago, when Clinton lost the Democratic nomination to Obama, her bloated, ill-advised campaign operation received the large share of blame in the election post-mortems. She had a campaign manager — Patti Solis Doyle, who was fired and replaced late in the primary. But Mark Penn, her pollster, was the one driving the bus, jostling with other officials and Clintonworld mainstays with their own pockets of power spread out across campaign and the country.
This time around, Clinton will face the same challenge: establishing a campaign structure that works. According to one person familiar with the Clinton operation under construction, some see a "flat" structure taking shape — with a campaign manager, a chair, and senior advisers all playing influential roles.
John Podesta, a longtime adviser to both Clintons, is expected to serve in the chairman role, as first reported in Politico earlier this fall. More than one former Clinton adviser has stressed Podesta's importance. His voice, one source said, would carry great weight no matter who fills other staffing roles.
From the sprawling network of Bill and Hillary Clinton, four names come up with some consistency when people talk about the campaign manager job.
One is Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the apparatus for electing and recruiting candidates to the upper chamber. In 2008, Cecil served as the national political and field director on the Clinton campaign. He also used to work at Dewey Square Group.
Another is Ace Smith, a California strategist who represents most of the state's major Democrats and is known for his background in opposition research.
A third contender mentioned is Stephanie Schriock, the president of EMILY's List, a national nonprofit that supports pro-choice female candidates.
The Clinton watchers who trade these prognostications say that Schriock has less of a personal relationship with Clinton than the others — and that Smith is expected to have a role on a campaign, but perhaps not in the manager role. With Cecil, people in the Clinton orbit have said midterm losses wouldn't hurt his chances at the role. But the damage to Democrats on Tuesday was worse than anticipated.
3. Is Robby Mook the man?
And then there is Robby Mook, the man whose name now comes up most in conversations about running a Clinton campaign.
Mook ran and won three states for Clinton in 2008. He then went to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or DCCC, before managing the race of a longtime Clinton family friend, Terry McAuliffe, last year. Mook helped McAuliffe, a longtime fundraiser, eke out a two-point win to become governor of Virginia.
Talk about a campaign manager often comes down to Cecil and Mook. For months, people speculated: One was up, one was down; one was in, the other was out. But increasingly, Mook has been discussed in a somewhat separate category.
One sign of his unique position: Cecil, Smith, and Schriock all plan to attend a fundraising meeting this month in New York hosted by Ready for Hillary, the super PAC that has led early Clinton efforts this year from the outside, gathering a long list of supporters who would back her campaign the day she announces.
Mook will not be attending, and has had no involvement with the group. His efforts on behalf of Clinton have been viewed as more from the inside than out.
After managing the McAuliffe race, Mook did not jump on a 2014 campaign.
Instead, he continued work for McAuliffe through the governor's PAC, Common Good VA, according to filings showing payments to Mook this year.
If Clinton does select Mook as manager, one thing to watch is who comes with him.
A tight-knit group of friends formed around Mook on the 2008 campaign: the so-called "Mook Mafia." Most of the aides followed him from Nevada to Ohio to Indiana, where he ran winning campaigns as a state director.
The group remains close.
4. So when will it happen?
If the campaign manager is one of the biggest questions facing Clinton now — the other is about timing. When does she launch a campaign? Does she start with an exploratory committee — a vehicle through which she could delay an official "announcement," but start raising money — or does she just dive right in? Does she get going before the end of the year? Right after? Later in the spring?
In recent weeks, Clinton supporters and advisers have frayed on the topic. Two basic schools of thought exist about how and when Clinton could announce.
First are the people who believe she should get in before the start of next year — in the next 60 days. The idea: Clinton should start raising money, and that people already know what's coming — so why play coy any longer?
On a logistical level, a campaign or exploratory committee would provide Clinton with a conduit to finance her own political activity, rather than pay for her own personal staff or foot the bill for travel expenses.
People who think Clinton should wait until after the New Year say there's no need to start fundraising now: She'll be able to get money no matter when she announces. And if Clinton wants donors to line up significant contributions on the day she announces — a group of fundraisers in New Jersey are already planning to bundle $5 to $10 million for day one — then she could use more time.
If Clinton announced before the end of the year, she would have to file her first fundraising report with the Federal Election Commission by January.
5. Will she take the blame for "#HillarysLosers"?
Clinton campaigned for nearly all competitive Senate candidates on Tuesday's ballot. As soon as the election night wound down and it was clear the Democrats would lose hold of the Senate, Republican operatives and potential rivals criticized Clinton on Twitter as an ineffective surrogate.
Sen. Rand Paul, who is expected to run for president, spent the last two weeks on the campaign trail attacking Clinton in his stump speeches. Just after midnight on Tuesday, he set up a "#Hillary's Losers" album on his Facebook page.
Did Clinton move the dial more or less than any surrogate this year? Probably not. But expect Republicans to keep talking about her losing candidates.
On Wednesday morning, the Republican National Committee also sent a research memo to reporters headlined, "Hillary's Policies Were On The Ballot."
6. Will she embrace Obama — or criticize him?
What Clinton says about Obama in the next 60 days will portend to what extent the onetime rivals will stay in lockstep ahead of the next election.
When Democrats blame the president for their losses, will Clinton do the same?
The former secretary of state did not talk about Obama much at all during her swing through the country on behalf of Democratic candidates this fall, though her aides maintain a regular backchannel to the White House. She spoke more often about the economic policies of a different White House: her husband's.
Clinton's stump speeches did not touch at length on Obama's record in office.
Moving forward, she has two options.
She can use her service in Obama's cabinet to link herself closely to him, focusing contrasts on her differences with Congress — now fully controlled by Republicans.
Or she can focus on well-known internal disputes over foreign policy, in which she took a relatively hawkish line, and raise new ones on domestic policy.
Every word she says about the current president will be carefully crafted, and watched.
7. When will John Podesta leave the White House?
One way to tell what Clinton is doing: Watch John Podesta.
Most people watching the Clinton orbit agree that he will be key to a campaign.
Last year, Podesta was in talks to co-chair Priorities USA Action, the pro-Obama super PAC that has realigned itself behind a potential Clinton candidacy. But that fell through when he agreed to join the White House senior staff as a counselor. Podesta has said he agreed to serve in that role for a full year.
He hits the one-year mark on Jan. 1, 2015.
One former campaign aide suggested Clinton wouldn't announce her campaign until he could leave the White House and assume his expected role as chair.
Podesta, who served as Bill Clinton's chief of staff, founded the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank. That is now run by Neera Tanden, a former Clinton adviser on the 2008 campaign who has stayed very much in the fold.
8. And what will she be doing in the meantime?
We know the answer to this one.
There's personal business: spending time with her grandchild, Charlotte.
And then there's business business: The one thing that's on Clinton's agenda this year no matter what happens? Finishing a fundraising campaign for the Clinton Foundation endowment, which the family would like to build up to $250 million.
If Clinton runs, the family won't be able to focus as much on the foundation.
In particular, Bill Clinton, a one-man fundraising machine, wouldn't be able to keep up his same efforts to solicit money each year. A bolstered endowment would help maintain the foundation through an election and far longer, ensuring that it outlives both Bill and Hillary Clinton. According to one person familiar with the status of the endowment push, the last 60 days of the year will be a "race to the finish."
The foundation has nearly met the goal, the source said.