Pressure On Malcolm Turnbull As Labor Wins Four Super Saturday By-Elections

Eight minutes though...

Reminder: Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie easily defeated Downer in the seat of Mayo yesterday.

Malcolm Turnbull may well be asking himself that question this morning.

At the end of the day, absolutely nothing has changed and a huge amount has been spent on election campaigns.

And remember these elections could have taken place a lot earlier, if it hadn't been recommended by the speaker of the House of Representatives, Tony Smith, on the recommendation of the Australian Electoral Commission to hold them at the end of July.

At the time Labor were super pissed given this weekend should have been when they had their National Conference. And the government seemed very happy with the longer election campaigns.

Wonder what they think now.

Politics editor Alice Workman will be joined by Labor senator Doug Cameron, Evan Mulholland from the Institute of Public Affairs, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, Guardian political reporter Amy Remeikis and electoral analyst Ben Raue.

- Rich James

I think we're pretty much there tonight folks.

To wrap-up:

Labor won back all four seats it held before the mass resignations in May.

Susan Lamb won the Queensland seat of Longman. The real story there though was the performance of LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg, whose drop in the primary vote share will be of concern to the government with a federal election around the corner. Queensland is vitally important to their election chances.

Labor’s Justine Keay has claimed victory over Liberal Brett Whiteley in the seat of Braddon. The overall results did not shift much since 2016, but there was a very strong performance from independent candidate Craig Garland claiming over 10% of the primary vote. Gardland's preferences went to Labor.

The rest of the elections went as expected. Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie easily won back her seat in Mayo, with Liberal candidate Georgina Downer never really in the running.

Meanwhile, Patrick Gorman in Perth and Josh Wilson in Fremantle were always going to win for Labor.

And so all the attention turns firmly onto Malcolm Turnbull and what these results mean. The government is already telling anyone who will listen that it's been almost 100 years since a government won a by-election seat off the opposition and that Labor should have always won tonight.

Given how closely the polls were tracking in the previous weeks though, there will be serious questions asked about what happened - especially in Longman. It won't be long before certain figures (mentioning no names, Tony Abbott) have their say on what it means for the government's performance and their hopes at the upcoming federal election.

Meanwhile, Bill Shorten will be a relieved man this evening. All the talk before today was about what it would mean for his leadership if Labor were to lose Longman or Braddon, or even both. Instead, all the talk now is about Turnbull, with Shorten declaring the results are as a "signpost" to a Labor government after the next federal election.

- Rich James

Jenna Guillaume is back with some more light relief - this time the best of Twitter on the night.

Click on the link for 14 of the best tweets about Super Saturday.

What happened in Longman??

The story of the night is the performance of the LNP in Longman (Queensland).

Trevor Ruthenberg is tracking at just over 25% of the primary vote, down some 10%.

Big Trev mentioned the scandal involving his military medal in his concession speech. Labor claim the results showed voters were unhappy at the government's tax plans.

Meanwhile, the One Nation vote was up some 6% to around 15%, despite party leader Pauline Hanson deciding to go on a cruise the week before polling day.

Labor's Justine Keay tells Sky News: "Yes, it seems quite clear that Labor has retained the seat of Braddon."

Keay says voters have sent a very strong message to prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

Like Lamb she references the government's tax cuts.

She concedes that the Labor primary vote is down in Braddon but points to the popularity of the independent candidate Craig Garland.

Politics editor Alice Workman will be joined by Labor senator Doug Cameron, Evan Mulholland from the Institute of Public Affairs, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, Guardian political reporter Amy Remeikis and electoral analyst Ben Raue.

• Rich James

So how will these by-elections be remembered?

• The day Bill Shorten ended any speculation over his leadership of the Labor party?

• Big Trev's medal cock-up?

• The Pauline Hanson cut-outs?

• The prime minister's interactions with the public as voters went to the polls?

Here's some light relief.

Jenna Guillaume and Jenna Clarke have taken a deep dive into the democracy sausages on show today.

There are some fine efforts on show, there are also some real disappointments.

Susan Lamb says it is an "absolutely amazing result for Labor and for Longman".

Lamb says the result sent a message to [prime minister] Malcolm Turnbull:

"Stop giving big banks a tax cut and start funding our schools and hospitals"

Meanwhile, Brett Whiteley is speaking in Braddon.

He doesn’t appear to be conceding though, says: “We’re close, but maybe not close enough.”

Every word in Bill Shorten's speech is meet with cheers.

Shorten talks about the results being a signpost towards a "Labor government after the next general election".

The Labor leader says the party has had "two great wins already and I’m hearing pretty good things from Western Australia as well".

Shorten pledges to fight inequality and declares "it is never about us, it is always about you - the people of Australia."

Labor leader Bill Shorten and victorious candidate Susan Lamb have arrived in Caboolture to huge celebrations.

"We want Lamb, we want Lamb, we want Lamb," the crowd chants.

Expect Shorten to have plenty to say about the government and prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's leadership.

Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg is speaking in Queensland.

The LNP candidate admits he has congratulated Susan Lamb on her victory.

In his concession speech he makes a specific reference to medal-gate (as I'm calling it), which appears to have had an impact on his campaign.

- Rich James

Polls, eh, who'd believe them?

Electoral analyst Ben Raue warned earlier this week that polls shouldn't always be trusted.

And good news! You can hear more from Ben on BuzzFeed News' live Twitter show tomorrow where we'll be discussing the results and what they all mean.

In Longman, the One Nation candidate Matthew Stephen tells Sky News' David Speers: “Mate, I’m like a lost kid in a candy store.”

Stephen says the party now needs to be treated with respect.

The One Nation vote could be up by as much as 6% to around 15%.

Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie thanks her supporters in her victory speech.

“HERE WE GO!” she shouts after her microphone is turned on.

She says it was a marathon campaign and the result was achieved by “people power”.

“Tonight we have shown that you don’t need huge wads of money… what you need are people who are passionate and people who care.

“I was crushed the day I resigned, but today is really sweet.”

- Rich James

Downer reveals she has conceded the Mayo election to Sharkie.

She repeats the line that by-elections are always tough for the government.

Georgina Downer is now preparing to speak in Mount Barker, south Australia.

Sky News is reporting Downer has called Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie to concede.

- Rich James

Meanwhile, the government is turning back to repeating the fact that governments always performs badly in by-elections.

- Rich James

If the narrative turns to Malcolm Turnbull's leadership then you can bet it won't be long till we heard from Tony.

- Rich James

POLLS CLOSED IN PERTH AND FREMANTLE

So now all the voting has finished.

Labor is expected to easily retain Perth and Fremantle, with Patrick Gorman and Josh Wilson being elected.

- Rich James

At the start of the day everyone expected the focus to be on Labor's Bill Shorten. But what does all of this mean for prime minister Malcolm Turnbull?

If these predictions are to be believed the pressure could instead be on Turnbull.

What we're seeing so far out of Queensland is that the LNP primary vote could be down as much as 10%.

"This is bad news from Malcolm Turnbull," Labor's Ed Husic says on the ABC.

Tonight was supposed to end in speculation over Shorten's leadership, instead the narrative has now switched to what went wrong for the LNP after the polls showed the contests were primed to be so close.

Queensland, so important to the federal election, will be a real concern for the government if the final results match the current projections.

- Rich James

The ABC's Antony Green is predicting the LNP may only get up to around 30% of the primary vote in Longman.

Independent candidate Craig Garland's preferences are being seen as key in helping Labor retain Braddon.

- Rich James

Green calls another - this time Longman for Labor’s Susan Lamb.

The story of the night in Queensland appears to be a swing to Labor on primary votes.

Did medal-gate ruined the Liberals’ Trevor Ruthenberg campaign?

On Sunday we’re bringing you the latest addition of our live Twitter show OzPol Live where all the results and reaction will be discussed in detail.

Tune in from 11am. Alice will be joined by Labor senator Doug Cameron, Evan Mulholland from the Institute of Public Affairs, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, Guardian political reporter Amy Remeikis and electoral analyst Ben Raue.

- Rich James

To be honest, this is not a surprise.

Sharkie was always polling well ahead of the Liberals candidate Georgina Downer.

Labor decided not to run.

In Caboolture, Labor party president Wayne Swan told BuzzFeed News that it was still going to be a tight contest in Longman due to the high One Nation vote. He said that he didn't think that the government's attacks on a "retirement tax" had much of an impact on the vote.

Green is suggesting the preferences from independent candidate Craig Garland to Labor will help Justine Keay get re-elected in Braddon.

Over 20% of the vote has now been counted.

“I'm sorry about this, but it's a thing.”

The guy who kicked off the entire dual citizenship saga last year spoke to BuzzFeed News' Josh Taylor recently on the anniversary of his resignation.

“It's strange, being the first domino and then copping a certain amount of abuse from Labor, which said we were disorganised, and the government, who said the Greens were bad and terrible,” the former Greens senator said. “I think it has been a surprise for everyone just how deep and widespread it has become.”

He added: "I don't think we're done yet, because [prime minister Malcolm] Turnbull protected a whole pile of his people who should probably be facing by-elections too,” he said. “So I feel like it still hasn't washed through because the government has been so bloody dishonest.”

Are we actually going to get all the results tonight?

A very good question.

Maybe. The ABC's election analyst, and the only person who understands preference voting in Australia, Antony Green has suggested a large number of the votes should be counted tonight.

Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg told Sky News this morning that he reckons the counting in Longman could go on for days.

DAYS!

God help us.

- Rich James

POLLS CLOSED IN MAYO

And early, early, early counting has started in Braddon and Longman.

Mood at the polling stations

BuzzFeed News' Elfy Scott in Mayo:

"There seems to be a pretty happy mood of acceptance among volunteers on the ground here. Labor aren't expecting much so they're happy to be speaking alongside the Greens and Centre Alliance. I think the priority for a lot of voters just seems to be keeping the Liberals out. The fight against ABC defunding is particularly vocal at the polling stations."

Josh Taylor in Longman says there was an initial rush in the morning to vote, but after that it slowed for the rest of the day. "More volunteers on the ground than you'd ever see at a general election".

Lane Sainty in Braddon:

A brilliant Devonport morning turned into a blustery afternoon as Justine Keay and Brett Whiteley hit Braddon to drum up votes. There were few crowds in the north-west Tasmanian electorate but a steady stream of voters flowed into voting booths in Devonport, Ulverstone and Burnie in the morning, slowing to a trickle in the afternoon.

There was not a great deal of drama. A classic democracy sausage was enjoyed by your correspondent at Nixon Street Public School.

Malcolm Turnbull argued with a man outside the Ulverstone High School polling place about corporate tax cuts, and whether or not he was telling the truth. Shortly after BuzzFeed News posted vision of the encounter on Twitter, Turnbull’s office sent a text saying the man speaking to the prime minister was a former Greens candidate. Subsequent Googling revealed he indeed ran as a Greens candidate – low down on the ticket at the 1992 and 1996 Tasmanian state elections – so make of that what you will.

Meanwhile at Burnie, a Greens voter told BuzzFeed News she had said “Fuck off!” to Liberal senator David Bushby as she walked into the polling place – a tale confirmed shortly thereafter by the senator himself.

There was no sign of flyers for renegade independent Craig Garland, whose preferences could very well decide the election, at the booths visited by BuzzFeed News – but Garland spent the day further along the coast, in Smithton.

POLLS CLOSED IN LONGMAN AND BRADDON

That's it for two out of five of our seats. Polls have now closed in Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania.

Public unimpressed

Now then, some people are annoyed we are even having a Super Saturday. Can you believe??

Labor leader Bill Shorten has copped a fair bit of flack for claiming that his party had no dual citizenship issues last year, only for the High Court to find otherwise.

Here’s Bill’s rolled-gold guarantee.

Also the by-election campaigns have now been dragging on for 11 weeks. Eleven weeks!

As you can tell from some of the tweets below, the prime minister in particular has received a fair bit of criticism when trying to interact with the public this week.

Here's some of what our reporters on the ground have been witnessing today as people go to vote.

Josh Taylor is in Longman, Lane Sainty is in Braddon, and Elfy Scott is in Mayo.

We’ve got a live show for you tomorrow morning as well!

You lucky things!

Tomorrow we’re bringing you the latest addition of our live Twitter show OzPol Live where all the results and reaction will be discussed in detail.

Tune in from 11am. Alice will be joined by Labor senator Doug Cameron, Evan Mulholland from the Institute of Public Affairs, former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, Guardian political reporter Amy Remeikis and electoral analyst Ben Raue.

It’s going to be awesome!

- Rich James

Pressure on Bill

The main focus this weekend will be whether Labor can hold onto their seats and, if they don’t, what does that mean for leader Bill Shorten?

Recent polling suggested Labor would win comfortably in Longman and Braddon if Anthony Albanese was in charge.

Expect a whole load of speculation and column inches about Shorten’s leadership credentials if Labor fails to pick up four of the five seats on offer today.

Albanese, Shorten’s perceived main challenger, has been hitting the campaign trail with the Labor candidates in recent days.

He has claimed that he won’t challenge Shorten for the leadership if Labor has a bad day at the polls this weekend. But watch this space…

- Rich James

The situation in Mayo and Western Australia

In Mayo, Rebekah Sharkie is expected to win against the Liberals candidate Georgina Downer.

Sharkie won in 2016 for the Nick Xenophon Team, which is now known as Centre Alliance.

Downer has faced criticism for being parachuted into the district and being part of a political dynasty (her father Alexander was foreign minister and went on to be the high commissioner to the UK).

Sharkie, meanwhile, is being seen as the local candidate with a large groundswell of support.

Former PM John Howard, Downer sr, and home affairs minister Peter Dutton, have all visited Mayo in recent days to try and drum up support for Georgina Downer – but their efforts seems destined to fail.

Labor has decided not to run.

In Perth Labor’s Patrick Gorman is expected to win the seat, with the only real challenge expected from Caroline Perks of the Greens. The Liberals are not contesting the seat.

Two facts I recently discovered about Mr Gorman.

1. He is 33 years old
2. His middle name is Possum.

In Fremantle Josh Wilson (one of four MPs forced to resign because confirmation of British citizenship wasn’t received before the close of nominations in 2016) is also expected to win easily.

Again the Liberals are not running.

- Rich James

One for the history buffs

By-elections are usually an opportunity to give the government a bit of a kick.

If the Coalition wins any of the Super Saturday by-elections, it will be the first time in 98 years that a sitting government has won a seat from the opposition.

However, the prime minister didn’t have the best time of it when trying to win over voters in Longman yesterday...

It could be very, very close

Polling in Longman and Braddon has continually fluctuated over who is in front.

Those two seats have received significant attention from the press and Canberra’s politicians.

In Longman Labor’s Susan Lamb is attempting to win back the seat she won in 2016 before stepping down in May over the dual citizenship saga.

This was her emotional account to parliament about why she was unable to provide the necessary documents regarding her citizenship due to family reasons.

She has been facing a significant challenge in Longman from the Liberals’ Trevor Ruthenberg, or “Big Trev” as the prime minister likes to call him.

Big Trev got into a bit of trouble recently over his military medals. There was a whole thing about his CV saying he’d won the Australian Service Medal, when really he’d won the Australian Defence Medal.

Lamb won the seat with a 0.8% margin (off Wyatt Roy of the LNP) two years ago after receiving strong preferences from One Nation voters. However this time around Pauline Hanson’s party has been on the attack against Labor and is preferencing the Liberals.

And you’ve probably tried to forget all of this – but there was that saga with former Labor leader Mark Latham recording a robocall for One Nation in which he accused Bill Shorten of being a liar.

Hanson, meanwhile, decided to go on a cruise the week before the by-election and Matthew Stephen, the One Nation candidate, has been caught up in speculation involving his business dealings.

But don’t fret, Hanson has been in Longman this week - in the form of 50 cardboard cut-outs.

In Braddon, we’ve also got a close contest on our hands.

Labor’s Justine Keay is hoping to win back the seat she won with a 2.2% margin in 2016. (But the polls show it’s much closer now.)

She faces Brett Whiteley, who won the seat at the 2013 election only to lose it to Keay in 2016.

Whiteley has faced accusations of not being that visible during the campaign, but the prime minister has been by his side in recent days, trying to hammer home the point that the Tasmanian economy has been improving under the Liberals.

However, the real power in Tasmania may actually lie with fisherman Craig Garland.

Garland, running as an independent, has been polling around 8% and could be the kingmaker in the election due to the fact his preferences are going to Labor.

The Liberals have being trying to remind voters of his assault conviction from the 1990s.

But Garland is unperturbed, telling the Guardian recently: “They’re going to get a hell of a shock. I probably know the north-west coast better than anybody. I played footy with them, I drank with them, I socialised with them, I’ve got lots of relatives.”

- Rich James

How we got here: The never-ending dual citizenship mess.

Remember last year when you couldn’t move for politicians being kicked out of parliament for being secret Kiwis, Canadians, and Brits?

Well, in May this year the High Court was at it again and ruled that Labor senator Katy Gallagher was ineligible and she was subsequently ejected from parliament.

That decision sparked a flurry of resignations, with Labor's Justine Keay (Braddon), Josh Wilson (Fremantle) and Susan Lamb (Longman), and Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) all announcing they were stepping down.

All of them held joint citizenship on the nomination date for the 2016 election and had not received a confirmation it had been renounced until after the cut-off point.

Those four resignations came after Labor’s member for Perth Tim Hammond also announced he was standing down, not for citizenship reasons, but because he wanted to spend more time with his family.

And so here we are – with five by-elections taking place on the same day. On a Saturday. A … super Saturday, if you will.

Also, if you’re wondering why July 28, that was the date declared by the speaker of the House of Representatives, Tony Smith, on the recommendation of the Australian Electoral Commission.

Labor were PISSED when it was announced, given this weekend should have been when they had their National Conference – which would have been a tad inconvenient.

You can relive that particular fight with Alice’s report HERE.

- Rich James