“Confidence” represents the relative strength of each nominee — a 0.4 nominee has a better chance of winning its category than a 0.2 nominee — but is not a percentage or probability of winning.
Based on how all the nominees fared this awards season, three nominees emerged as clear front-runners: Argo for Best Picture, Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, and Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress.
Defying consensus — which holds Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro as the current one-two favorites — Golden Globe and BAFTA winner Christoph Waltz has a slight edge for Best Supporting Actor. Jones’ momentum is coming off a win at the SAGs, which is conventionally given most clout as an Oscar predictor. But in the supporting categories, the Globes are actually as good or better predictors, especially recently. (De Niro, meanwhile, hasn’t won a single MOP, a harbinger of Oscar failure 16 of the last 17 times.)