Hurricane Michael hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category 4 hurricane.
The map above shows the most likely predicted path, but storms’ tracks are difficult to forecast; about one-third of the time, the center of a storm may move outside of the predicted cone of uncertainty drawn around the best track.
The color gives an estimate of the likelihood of that area experiencing hurricane-force winds — meaning greater than 74 miles per hour — over the next five days.
Michael is also likely to dump large amounts of rain across Florida’s Gulf Coast and farther inland. This map shows the predicted rainfall over the coming seven days.
The storm brought dangerous surges of seawater when it hits the Florida Panhandle. Floods caused by surging seas are usually the biggest killers when powerful hurricanes make landfall.
After the immediate coastal inundation, rainfall may cause flash floods and in the coming days cause rivers to swell and burst their banks.
In the map above, the blue shading shows areas at risk of flash flooding over the coming day. The colored circles show the locations and longest available forecast for flooding at stream gauges that are set up to monitor river heights.
Forecasts are only available for the locations of stream gauges that have sufficient historical data to predict how a river will respond to rainfall, so they do not provide a complete guide to where rivers may flood. Always obey evacuation orders from local officials.
Updated to include maps of predicted flooding.
Updated to include storm surge warnings and watches.
Updated to reflect status of Hurricane Michael at landfall.