KIEV, Ukraine — When two high-ranking Western diplomatic sources told Economist international editor Edward Lucas that Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych had spurned Europe forever and agreed to join a Putin-led union instead, he sent out a series of tweets:
Wow! Hearing Yanukovich in Sochi today signed strategic agrt w Russia includes $5BN+ up front, gas price $200 + agrt to join customs union
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
Wow! Hearing Yanukovich in Sochi today signed strategic agrt w Russia includes $5BN+ up front, gas price $200 + agrt to join customs union
Lucas, an avid and virulent Kremlin critic, was quick to stress he hadn't confirmed the information.
Technical details being hammered out in Moscow. Western govts flummoxed. (Haven't confirmed this but sources good)
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
Technical details being hammered out in Moscow. Western govts flummoxed. (Haven't confirmed this but sources good)
But he also seemed keen to treat the rumor as fact:
Expect much grandstanding from Putin over this & v angry reaction (poss crackdown, state of emergency) in Ukraine
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
Expect much grandstanding from Putin over this & v angry reaction (poss crackdown, state of emergency) in Ukraine
And proffered numbers on Russian financial aid to shore up Ukraine's struggling economy:
Cash for Yanukovych may be up to $15BN
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
Cash for Yanukovych may be up to $15BN
Analysts were flummoxed:
@edwardlucas If Yanukovych joins customs union, he's much dumber than I think (I admit it: a real possibility!).
Stephen Sestanovich
@SSestanovich
@edwardlucas If Yanukovych joins customs union, he's much dumber than I think (I admit it: a real possibility!).
Reports that Yanukovych has reached deal with Putin today to join Customs Union can't be true. Would be a boot in the face to Ukrainians.
michaelwillard
@michaelwillard
Reports that Yanukovych has reached deal with Putin today to join Customs Union can't be true. Would be a boot in the face to Ukrainians.
The whole of Ukraine is now awake because of @edwardlucas. He'd better be right for his own sake. He'd better be wrong for Ukraine's sake.
Leonid Ragozin
@leonidragozin
The whole of Ukraine is now awake because of @edwardlucas. He'd better be right for his own sake. He'd better be wrong for Ukraine's sake.
And pro-European Ukrainians were despondent:
If #Yanukovych has indeed signed into customs union with Russia in Sochi as reported, then he is guilty of treason #Ukraine
Yuri Bender
@YuriBender
If #Yanukovych has indeed signed into customs union with Russia in Sochi as reported, then he is guilty of treason #Ukraine
Congratulations, to @ua_yanukovych!he not only sold #Ukraine td for 15bln$, but also treated 46mln of ppl as slaves..
Kateryna_Kruk
@Kateryna_Kruk
Congratulations, to @ua_yanukovych!he not only sold #Ukraine td for 15bln$, but also treated 46mln of ppl as slaves..
@Kateryna_Kruk интересно, г-н Лукас понимает, что своей информацией из "доверенных источников", он может быть виновен в провокации и войне?
Taras
@vertexod
@Kateryna_Kruk интереÑно, г-н Ð›ÑƒÐºÐ°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð°ÐµÑ‚, что Ñвоей информацией из "доверенных иÑточников", он может быть виновен в провокации и войне?
#euromaidan Донбасс!Выходите на майдан!Янукович хочет нас похоронить! В ТС наш уголь не нужен, его заменят газом! Шахтёров оставят без работ
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð˜Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¾Ð²
@IvanowDenis
#euromaidan ДонбаÑÑ!Выходите на майдан!Янукович хочет Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñ…Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð½Ð¸Ñ‚ÑŒ! Ð’ ТС наш уголь не нужен, его заменÑÑ‚ газом! Шахтёров оÑтавÑÑ‚ без работ
Lucas was forced to deny speculation his account had been hacked, and clarified his earlier tweets.
My account has not been hacked. I've been on a plane for last 3 hours. Hoping what I heard is wrong. But I fear it's right. Sources good.
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
My account has not been hacked. I've been on a plane for last 3 hours. Hoping what I heard is wrong. But I fear it's right. Sources good.
to clarify: VVP did deal w Yanukovych in Sochi, w financial/gas elements (details in Moscow) One part of agrt is to customs agrt --in future
Edward Lucas
@edwardlucas
to clarify: VVP did deal w Yanukovych in Sochi, w financial/gas elements (details in Moscow) One part of agrt is to customs agrt --in future
By then, however, it was too late. Major Ukrainian and Russian news outlets ran stories citing Lucas' tweets as their sole source — and referring to his employer, The Economist. The opposition Ukrainska Pravda website headlined theirs, "Yanukovych Gave Up Ukraine To Russia." Many feared joining the customs union was what Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov had meant by "preparations for a big agreement on strategic partnership" with Russia.
On Saturday morning, Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied that the issue of Ukraine joining the customs union had even come up or that Ukraine and Russia had reached an agreement on a cut-price gas deal. Peskov added that the presidents mostly discussed preparing to hold an intergovernmental commission later this month. Azarov also denied that an agreement had been struck and claimed the presidents focused on industry, aviation, and energy cooperation, Reuters reported.
Despite that, Ukrainian opposition leader Arseny Yatsenyuk said at a press conference Saturday afternoon that he knew Yanukovych was preparing to sign an agreement on Ukraine entering the customs union, which Putin views as a counterweight to the EU, later this month. Yanukovych backed out of signing a deal with the EU last month, citing Ukraine's struggling economy and heavy Russian pressure, but still says Ukraine will eventually move towards Europe.
"Any signature to a deal on forming a new Soviet Union means the breakup of the country," Yatsenyuk said.
Reached by BuzzFeed Saturday, Lucas insisted he had not meant to have his tweets cited as fact by Russian-language media, despite its tendency towards sourcing terms like "according to unofficial information" and "some people say." Lucas defended his high-ranking Western diplomatic sources' information, but said his tweets never would have made it into The Economist, where each piece goes through "four or five editing layers" before publication.
"I think Twitter is like striking matches and throwing them into the dark," Lucas said. "Sometimes a match falls into a pool of petrol. If you're tweeting in a very badly informed media environment things can take on a kind of significance they might not otherwise have."
A definitive break from Europe would provoke fury among pro-Western Ukrainians, who have protested in Kiev's Independence Square since Yanukovych backed out of the deal in late November. Organizers are calling for a million people to attend a rally Sunday, hoping to repeat the success of one a week before which drew at least 350,000 and saw several violent clashes.
After having heard about agr. Yanuk made with Putin,ppl go even more radical.one old lady on subway told:I want him shot.:/we feel betrayed
Kateryna_Kruk
@Kateryna_Kruk
After having heard about agr. Yanuk made with Putin,ppl go even more radical.one old lady on subway told:I want him shot.:/we feel betrayed