Who Won The GOP Debate? Prediction Markets Say Jeb(!)

The debate also boosted Fiorina's (much lower) odds of snagging the nomination.

By
Jeremy Singer-Vine
by Jeremy Singer-Vine

BuzzFeed News Data Editor

Who won Wednesday's GOP debate? Prediction markets, which let people place bets on the presidential election, have an answer: Jeb Bush.

Using data from PredictWise, a research project that combines information from the Betfair and PredictIt markets, BuzzFeed News compared the 11 candidates' odds of winning the Republican nomination — before and 12 hours after the debate.

Bush's odds rose from 35% to 40%, consolidating his lead — latest polls be damned. Carly Fiorina's odds also improved, from 4% to 8%. Bettors reacted most harshly to Scott Walker, whose odds dropped from 8% to 4%. The full results:

Pre-DebatePost-DebateChange
Bush35%40%4.3%
Rubio14%16%1.7%
Trump15%13%-1.8%
Fiorina4%8%4.1%
Carson8%6%-1.5%
Walker8%4%-3.9%
Kasich5%4%-1.8%
Cruz3%4%0.4%
Huckabee2%4%1.5%
Christie3%1%-2.0%
Paul1%1%0.1%
Source: PredictWise odds at Weds. @ 8pm, and Thurs. @ 11am. Pre- and post-debate figures are rounded to the nearest percentage.
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